Reacting to: Businesses slam brakes on hiring over Burnham uncertainty (City A.M.) →

City A.M. reports this morning that employers are pausing recruitment while they wait to see what direction the next government takes. Recruiter Morgan McKinley's figures show available jobs in London fell 5% in the second quarter compared to the first, with professional vacancies down 3% on a year ago. British Chambers of Commerce research paints a similar picture nationally: fewer than one in four firms plan to grow their workforce, just over one in ten plan to cut staff — and yet nearly three quarters say they struggle to find the people they need. Morgan McKinley's Mark Astbury puts the pause down to political uncertainty following the Prime Minister's resignation, with many organisations delaying recruitment until the government's economic priorities are clearer.

Uncertainty is doing the deciding

Look at those two BCC numbers together and something odd appears. Three quarters of firms can't find the staff they need, but fewer than a quarter plan to hire. That's not a picture of businesses that don't need people — it's a picture of businesses that don't feel confident enough in their numbers to commit to them. When the outlook is foggy, the default decision is no decision, and recruitment is usually the first thing to get parked.

A pause is a decision too — make it with real numbers

For a small employer, there's a more useful response than joining the freeze on instinct. Work out what the hire would actually cost — the full cost, not just the salary. Then test it against a cashflow forecast that reflects a tougher trading environment, not the friendliest one. If the numbers work under pressure, hesitating just hands the good candidates — who are more available right now than they've been in a while — to whoever moves first. If the numbers don't work, you've made a real decision instead of an anxious one.

What follows is the arithmetic most owners never actually do. It takes about ten minutes.

What an employee costs on top of salary in 2026–27

Three costs sit above the wage, and all three are fixed by rates you can look up rather than guess at.

Employer's National Insurance is 15% on everything you pay above the secondary threshold of £5,000 a year (£96 a week, £417 a month). That threshold is low, so on any meaningful salary the 15% applies to nearly all of it.

The Employment Allowance then cuts against that. Eligible employers can knock up to £10,500 off their annual employer NI bill. This is the single most commonly overlooked number in a hiring decision, and for a small employer it frequently wipes the NI cost out altogether. One catch matters here: a company whose only employee liable for secondary Class 1 NI is its sole director cannot claim it. Which means the moment that company takes on its first real employee, it becomes eligible — the first hire can be cheaper in NI terms than owners expect.

Pension contributions under automatic enrolment are a minimum of 3% from the employer, on qualifying earnings between £6,240 and £50,270. Enrolment is triggered once the employee earns over £10,000 a year and meets the age criteria. The overall minimum contribution is 8%, with the balance from the employee.

You also can't pay below the legal floor. From 1 April 2026 the National Living Wage for workers aged 21 and over is £12.71 an hour. It's £10.85 for 18 to 20-year-olds, and £8.00 for under-18s and apprentices in their first year.

Putting real numbers on it

An illustrative example. You're considering one full-time hire at £32,000, aged 25.

  • Salary: £32,000
  • Employer's NI: 15% of (£32,000 − £5,000) = £4,050
  • Employer pension at 3% of (£32,000 − £6,240) = £772.80
  • Gross payroll cost: £36,822.80 — about 15% above the salary

Now apply the Employment Allowance. If you're eligible and this hire is your first, the whole £4,050 of employer NI is covered by the £10,500 allowance, and the real cost falls to £32,772.80 — roughly 2.4% above salary rather than 15%. That is a £4,050 swing on a single decision, and plenty of owners talk themselves out of a hire without knowing the allowance exists.

Two more things belong in the number before you commit. Statutory holiday is 5.6 weeks a year — 28 days for someone on a five-day week — so you are buying about 46 working weeks, not 52. And Statutory Sick Pay runs at £123.25 a week, or 80% of average weekly earnings if that is lower.

The decision rule

Once you have the full cost, the question stops being "can I afford it" and becomes something answerable: what does this person have to generate to wash their face?

On the example above, the true cost is roughly £2,731 a month with the allowance, or £3,069 without it. If your gross margin is 40%, the hire needs to add about £6,800 a month in sales to break even at the £2,731 figure. If your margin is 60%, it's about £4,550. Write down the number, then ask whether the role plausibly delivers it — and how many months of ramp-up before it does. Three months of ramp on this hire is roughly £8,000 of cost carried before the first return.

That is a real decision. "Let's wait and see what happens in Westminster" is not.

Test it against a bad month, not a good one

The last step is the one people skip. Drop the hire into a cashflow forecast, then knock 20% off your revenue line for three consecutive months and look again. Payroll doesn't flex when sales dip — it goes out on the same date regardless, along with the PAYE and NI you owe HMRC by the 22nd of the following month.

If the business still clears its obligations in that scenario, the hire is affordable and waiting is costing you candidates. If it doesn't, you've learned something far more valuable than a hiring answer: you've found the revenue level at which your current cost base stops working, which is worth knowing whether you hire or not.

The BCC's Patrick Milnes told City A.M. that "helping businesses invest in skills must be at the heart of their economic plan" — sound advice for the next Prime Minister, whoever that turns out to be. But you don't have to wait for Westminster to get clarity on your own payroll. That's what our Payroll & Pensions service and Cashflow & Budgeting work are for: knowing what a hire costs you, month by month, before you commit. We've also written the detail up in full — what a new hire actually costs, our guide to hiring your first employee, and payroll for your first hire if the admin side is what's holding you back.