Reacting to: 436,000 sole traders and landlords make their tax digital (gov.uk (HMRC)) →
HMRC published this as a success story yesterday, and on its own terms it is one: more than 436,000 sole traders and landlords have now sent their first Making Tax Digital for Income Tax quarterly update, and more than 570,000 have signed up to the service. Six months ago plenty of people in this profession, including me, would have taken those numbers.
The number that matters more is the one you get by subtracting. Three weeks earlier, in its 23 July press notice, HMRC put 864,000 sole traders and landlords in scope for that first update. So roughly 428,000 people who were legally required to file by 7 August have not, and around 134,000 of them managed to sign up and then stopped. That second group is the interesting one. They are not the digitally excluded, and they are not unaware — they went through the sign-up. They got as far as the software and then hit whatever the real obstacle is, which in our experience is almost never the submission and almost always the bookkeeping sitting behind it.
The genuinely new thing in this release
Buried under the headline figure is an operational change worth more than the statistics. From September 2026, HMRC will begin signing up customers who should be using MTD for 2026-27 but have not done so themselves, in stages over the following months. New guidance explaining what to do if you receive one of those letters is due in late August.
Read that carefully, because it is easy to misread as relief. It is not HMRC doing the work for you. Enrolment is an administrative act: it puts the obligation live on your record. It does not choose your software, connect your bank feed, categorise a single transaction or file anything. Every part of the job that makes a quarterly update genuinely take minutes still has to happen at your end — you will just be doing it against a shorter clock, with a letter on the desk, and with HMRC's chosen start position rather than one you set up deliberately.
HMRC's own director of Making Tax Digital, Craig Ogilvie, made the point in the release: signing up yourself means you "stay in control" and can get the details right from the start. That is not marketing. It is the difference between choosing your software in September and having six months of records to reconstruct in October.
Putting real numbers on the choice
An illustrative example — not a client, and the figures are chosen to be easy to follow. Take a self-employed plumber with one let flat. His 2024-25 return showed £61,000 of trade turnover and £9,600 of rent, so his qualifying income was £70,600, comfortably over the £50,000 line, and he has been in MTD since 6 April 2026. He has not signed up. He is in the 428,000.
His first quarter, 6 April to 5 July 2026, actually looks like this once the bookkeeping is done:
- Trade income invoiced: £15,800
- Materials and merchant accounts: £3,240
- Van, fuel and insurance: £1,180
- Tools, phone and software: £700 — trade expenses £5,120, trade profit £10,680
- Rent received: £2,400, less agent fees and repairs of £610 — property profit £1,790
Run that quarter out across the year and he lands near £42,720 of trade profit and £7,160 of property profit: £49,880 in total. Against a £12,570 personal allowance that leaves £37,310 taxable, all of it inside the £37,700 basic rate band, so income tax of £7,462. Class 4 National Insurance runs on the trade profit only, at 6% on the £30,150 above £12,570, giving £1,809. Call it £9,271, due 31 January 2028, followed by payments on account of £4,635.50 each in January and July 2028.
Here is the whole argument in one sentence. If he does the work now, he knows that £9,271 in August 2026 — seventeen months before it is due — and every subsequent update sharpens it. If he waits for the letter, he learns it in January 2028, three weeks before he has to pay it, which is exactly the position Self Assessment already put him in. The compliance obligation is identical either way. The planning value only exists in one version.
Why waiting makes the work bigger, not smaller
The quarterly updates are cumulative — each one restates the year from 6 April rather than covering three fresh months. That design is generous when you are up to date, because a mistake in August is corrected automatically by the November filing and you never file an amendment. It is unforgiving when you are behind.
The second update for 2026-27 covers 6 April to 5 October and is due 7 November. That date does not move for someone HMRC enrols in October. So our plumber, if he waits for the letter, does not get an easier first submission — he gets a six-month one, built in under four weeks, in the run-up to Christmas. At a realistic 90 transactions a month he is reconstructing roughly 540 lines rather than the 270 he would have had if he had filed in August. Nobody wins that trade.
What is not a reason to panic
Two things are worth saying plainly, because the "HMRC will sign you up" line will get repeated all week without them.
First, there is no penalty for a late quarterly update in 2026-27. HMRC confirmed again in this release that no penalty points are issued this tax year, and that anyone who has not sent their first update can simply send it now. If you missed 7 August, that is a scheduling problem, not a bill.
Second, the update is not a tax return and not a payment. Nothing leaves your bank account because of it. Your Self Assessment return for 2026-27 is still due 31 January 2028 and your tax is still paid then. What has changed is that HMRC has stated those in scope will need to send their quarterly updates in order to submit that return — so the updates are not optional housekeeping you can skip and reconcile later.
Where the deadlines are still real
The grace is for this year only. From 6 April 2027, points-based penalties start: one point per missed quarterly deadline, and at four points a fixed £200 charge, with points expiring after a period of compliance. Four missed deadlines is one full year of ignoring it, so anyone who treats 2027-28 the way 428,000 people have treated this quarter collects the £200 at the fourth miss.
The population also grows. From April 2027 the threshold drops to £30,000 of qualifying income, tested on 2025-26 figures. From April 2028 it drops to £20,000, tested on 2026-27 — the year you are trading through right now. Anyone reading this who is under the line today should assume they are inside it within two years.
What to do this week
- Establish whether you are actually in scope. Add gross self-employment income to gross property income from your 2024-25 return. Over £50,000 and you started on 6 April 2026. Our MTD checker does it in four questions.
- If you are in and not signed up, sign up yourself before September. That is the entire point of this week's announcement — self-enrolment lets you set your details and pick software deliberately instead of reacting to a letter.
- If you signed up but never filed, file the first update now. No points, no penalty, and it halves the size of the November job.
- Get 6 April to 5 October moving. Connect the bank feed, categorise the backlog, and reconcile to your 5 July statement balance as a checkpoint.
- Diarise 7 November. It is the same date for everyone, regardless of when you joined.
What is still uncertain
Two things are genuinely unknown at this point. HMRC has not published the order or the pace of the September enrolments beyond "in stages over the coming months", so nobody can tell you which month your letter lands. And the guidance explaining what to do when it arrives is not out yet — HMRC has said late August. We will read it when it publishes and update this page if it changes the practical advice above.
If the quarterly rhythm is more admin than you have room for, that is precisely what our Making Tax Digital service and our bookkeeping team exist to absorb — records compliant, submissions going out on time, without you becoming a software expert on top of running the business. The full MTD guide covers the sign-up mechanics step by step, and our earlier piece on the August deadline sets out the cumulative-update rules in more detail.

